UK Real Estate – Overview Q2 2024

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UK Real Estate – Overview Q2 2024

Joanna Tano
Joanna Tano
Head of Research, Europe, Real Estate (EMEA)

Investment market

  • Second quarter investment activity showed a volume of £12.4 billion, 18% higher than the Q1 level. Transaction activity has been slow to improve, with investment volumes below their 10-year average but there are signs that investor interest is returning, although this has not yet crystalised into a notable rise in transactions.

  • Real estate debt markets remained relatively liquid and, while higher interest rates have weighed on activity, the cost of debt has eased over the last six months. Loan originations continue to be dominated by refinancing rather than new investments, but there is competition among lenders to refinance high quality assets.

  • Capital values for favoured sectors has turned a corner with positive growth in Q2 for the retail and industrial sectors. Retail warehousing is leading the way in terms of the recovery, followed by industrials (the latter driven more by rental growth than yield compression). The preference for quality stock in prime locations or those assets that can be repositioned to higher value uses has not diminished either.
  • Consensus is shifting towards the view that pricing is bottoming-out, especially for favoured sectors such as retailer warehousing, logistics and residential. Some further asset repricing is anticipated in non-favoured sectors, for example offices, where limited prime stock is available and vacancy continues to rise, particularly for larger lot sizes over £50 million.
  • The market has been notably short of investment stock by historic terms owing to costly leverage and the anticipated cut in interest rates delaying investor decisions. The situation is beginning to ease, for example with competitive bidding in the out-of-town retail sector which has encouraged more stock to the market. Distressed sales to resolve more difficult situations are still relatively uncommon and a deluge of distress is not anticipated.
  • Transaction activity is expected to improve in H2 2024 following 18 months of relative inactivity. Liquidity will continue to be provided by investors required to meet redemption or debt obligations with UK defined benefit pension funds likely to be the greatest net sellers as more schemes transition towards buyouts. In contract open LGPS schemes will likely continue be the sharpest capital in the market as they continue their pooling journey, actively deploying capital within core UK commercial real estate markets offering long term stable returns.
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UK Real Estate Overview Q2 2024

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UK Real Estate – Overview Q2 2024

Important information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. Real estate investing involves risks, including, without limitation: (i) actual operating results; (ii) interest rates; (iii) availability and costs of financing; (iv) economic and market conditions; (v) date of expected exit; (vi) increases in costs of materials or services beyond projections; (vii) force majeure events (e.g., terrorist attacks, extreme weather conditions, earthquakes, war); (viii) supply/demand imbalances; (ix) currency fluctuations; (x) litigation and disputes relating to investments with joint venture partners or third parties; (xi) changes in zoning and other laws; (xii) inability to obtain necessary licenses and permits; (xiii) competition; and (xiv) changes in tax law and tax treatment and disallowance of tax positions.

The value of directly-held property reflects the opinion of valuers and is reviewed periodically. These assets can also be illiquid and significant or persistent redemptions may requite the manager to sell properties at a lower market value adversely affecting the value of your investment.

The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either.

Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This is a marketing document. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

© 2024 Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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Important information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. Real estate investing involves risks, including, without limitation: (i) actual operating results; (ii) interest rates; (iii) availability and costs of financing; (iv) economic and market conditions; (v) date of expected exit; (vi) increases in costs of materials or services beyond projections; (vii) force majeure events (e.g., terrorist attacks, extreme weather conditions, earthquakes, war); (viii) supply/demand imbalances; (ix) currency fluctuations; (x) litigation and disputes relating to investments with joint venture partners or third parties; (xi) changes in zoning and other laws; (xii) inability to obtain necessary licenses and permits; (xiii) competition; and (xiv) changes in tax law and tax treatment and disallowance of tax positions.

The value of directly-held property reflects the opinion of valuers and is reviewed periodically. These assets can also be illiquid and significant or persistent redemptions may requite the manager to sell properties at a lower market value adversely affecting the value of your investment.

The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either.

Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This is a marketing document. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

© 2024 Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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